State of the Market – January 2012

It might seem odd to pen my first State of the Market halfway through the first month of the year, but we are already getting signals as to what the market will be doing in 2012 and I’d like to share some of them.

The new Ontario Building Code took effect on January 1 and introduced tough energy standards for all new homes built in the province.  Although the new rules will make homes more energy effect and increase air quality, they will also increase the costs of building, which of course will be borne by the consumer.

Contractors I’ve spoken to estimate that this will add one to two percent to construction costs, which shouldn’t have much of an negative effect on building starts in Cottage Country, but it certainly won’t help either.  The prices of vacant waterfront lots have felt the effects of a slower economy, the introduction of the HST in 2010 and increasing costs of building materials, and that shouldn’t change much in 2012.  Prime lots on the area’s most popular lakes will still be in high demand, but smaller lakes and less desirable lakes will be a tough sell.

Waterfront cottage sales should bounce back slightly this year, buoyed by record low interest rates and improving confidence in the global economic picture.

A similar storyline should appear in the local residential real estate market.  As more new condominium units in Parry Sound are completed later in the year, we will see a good supply of resale homes keep pace with demand, translating to a year of stable prices after coming down a bit in 2011.

If you’re thinking of buying either a home or cottage in 2012, get your financial ducks in a row as soon as possible.  While January is often the slowest month of the year for real estate in the Parry Sound area, the spring market is just around the corner and we should start to see listing inventories start to pick up soon.

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The Best Websites in Cottage Country

As promised during my discussion with Chuck Murney on the Cottage Country Radio Network last Tuesday, here are web links to the sites we talk about, enjoy!

Geography and Mapping

Google Maps

  • Works best for all areas of Cottage Country.  Bing Maps good for Muskoka region, but difficult in most places at best (lack of detail).

Satellite Imagery of the Great Lakes Region

West Parry Sound Geography Network

  • Excellent online mapping for much of the Parry Sound region

Lakes and Cottage Life

Muskoka Water Web

    Georgian Bay Water Levels

    FOCA (Federation of Ontario Cottagers’ Associations

    • links to loads of cottage and lake related websites

    Manitowabing Lake Community Association

    • how to do a cottage association website properly

    Cottage Life Magazine

    Bear Wise

    Real Estate

    REALTOR.ca

    • The national real estate information portable, provided by the Canadian Real Estate Association

    Cottage Blogger

    • (everything you wanted to know about cottages rentals, and more)

    Photography

    Muskoka Blog

    • Photo blog -boathouses, landscapes, and more

    Killbear Provincial Park

    • Flickr group (capturing the natural beauty of one of Ontario’s premiere Provincial Parks)

    Buy and Sell stuff in Cottage Country

    Kijijii.ca

    • boats, motors, kayaks, canoes, cars, rentals, furnishings, etc.

    Ebay

    • a quick search revealed 1,159 hits for the search term, “Muskoka”

    Facebook

    • Parry Sound Virtual garage sale

    News

    Cottage Country Now

    • Muskoka, Almaguin, Parry Sound area news

    Moose FM (Haliburton Broadcasting)

    • North Eastern Ontario and Parry Sound through to Bancroft and Barry’s Bay (they’re avid Tweeters, as well)

    Twitter

    • use as news aggregator – search hashtags and search terms through twitter applications such as Hootsuite

    Historical Interest

    Ontario Abandoned Places

    • Ghosts towns throughout Ontario, including those in Cottage Country

    Ontario Ghost Towns

    • a better site than the one above, although covers less ghost towns.
    Posted in Cottage Ownership, Local, Technology, Tips | Leave a comment

    Do I need a permit – Part Two

    Back in October, I wrote a blog article about building permits which advised would be renovators to call their respective municipality before commencing any renovation or construction work.

    Now that I’m running my Cottage Country Radio podcast on BlogTalkRadio, I thought it would be a good topic to discuss with an expert in the field.  So last week, I had a 45 minute discussion with Helen Vock, who does architectural design work with her company, Triple C Designs, and is also worked as a municipal building official.

    Check out our discussion here and feel free to email Helen with all your design and building-related questions.

    Posted in Local, Media Roundup, Tips | Leave a comment

    A Dummies Guide to Cottage Rentals – With Heather Bayer

    Yesterday, I had the pleasure of chatting with Heather Bayer of Cottage Blogger and  Cottage Link Rental Management in Havelock, Ontario.

    Heather’s knowledge of the rental market is extensive and her blog is an excellent resource for anyone thinking of renting their cottage.  We talked about winter rentals (there is more of a market for winter rentals than one may think) and I learned that lake size isn’t as big an issue for rentals as it is for resale cottages.

    Listen to our entire conversation live here , or subscribe to our podcast through iTunes and never miss an episode.

    Posted in Cottage Ownership, Legal, Local, Tips | Leave a comment

    Now featured on Blog Talk Radio!

    For along time, I’ve wanted to host my own radio show.  As a kid, I grew up listening to AM radio stations based in Toronto as the local station’s transmitter was too weak to get its signal much beyond the town limits.  I coerced my Grade 8 teacher to letting me run a “radio station” using the public school PA system and as I got older, dreamed of working in some capacity in the broadcast industry.

    Around the eleventh grade, I discovered through the guidance department at my high school that people in radio and TV were amongst the lowest paid professionals around, and quickly gave up broadcast as a potential career (I also gave up the idea of being a professional musician for similar reasons).

    But now, several years later, my childhood dreams of hosting my own radio show have finally come to fruition.  Thanks to Blog Talk Radio, a web-based platform that allows people to host  live call-in Internet broadcasts using a computer and a telephone, I’ve launched my latest Web 2.0 project, name Cottage Country Radio Network.

    Intended to have a broad scope on issues relevant to cottage country, Cottage Country Radio Network is not just about real estate.  Future episodes will deal with legals issues, tax planning, the cottage rental market and politicians at all levels.

    The premiere episode was recorded on Sunday October 30, 2011, and features a discussion with Jay Richardson, Broker with Royal Lepage Realty Ltd., in Dwight, Ontario.  Jay specializes in waterfront cottages and properties in Lake of Bays, Huntsville and the surrounding area and is a well-known, respected expert in her field.

    Check out Cottage Country Radio Network and listen to my interview with Jay or subscribe to the podcast version through iTunes today.

    Posted in Cottage Ownership, Local, Market News, Seasonal, Tips | Leave a comment

    Do I need a permit?

    One of the most common questions I get here in cottage country is whether one requires a permit to build or alter docks.

    Every municipality in the Parry Sound area treat shoreline work differently (as they do with building permits).  The best advice I can give is to call your local building department and ask their opinion…its easier to ask for a permit than for forgiveness.  Typically, the permit process is painless and inexpensive, but can sometimes involve other government agencies.

    Cottage Life magazine answered the question better than I could here, so read what they say here.

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    Posted in Cottage Ownership, Legal | Leave a comment

    Tips on winterizing the cottage.

    As October looms on the horizon, it’s time to start thinking about putting the cottage to bed before winter sets in.  While many cottages in the Parry Sound area are used year round, there are still many that are used primarily from May to October.

    Most do-it-yourselfers have an established method of winterizing their cottages which may seem daunting to many of us non-plumber types.  In that case, you’re probably better having one of the several cottage services or plumbers in the area handle the task for  you (as I do).  Feel free to contact us if you need a reference.

    I found this excellent checklist you can download off the web that will help you get started, even if you get someone else to handle the plumbing.

    Posted in Cottage Ownership | Leave a comment

    State of the Market – September 2011

    Happy September! We have another summer under our belts, and what a summer it was! Hot and dry…perfect weather (in my opinion). Hopefully, we’ll get another month of summer before autumn settles in.

    The local real estate market remains an enigma. Late June ushered a spike in buyer demand after the cold and wet spring market and the rush lasted for about 4 weeks before slowing down. August activity was typical for the late summer period as is September (to date).

    For the first time since the spring, I have had the opportunity to analyze the sales data for the local market and have found some significant trends. Earlier this month, The Parry Sound Real Estate Board’s statistics showed that our local market was down from 409 unit sales (yearto August 31, 2010) to 379 (year to August 31, 2011), not a huge amount but enough to take notice.

    Over the course of 2011, I have certainly had more confidence in the non-waterfront residential market than the waterfront market, and the numbers prove it. In-town home sales to date are up 20% compared to the same period last year, with 60 unit sales this year compared to 50 in 2010. That’s a 20 percent increase in sales, with average prices creeping up a nominal 1.5 percent.

    Rural residential sales are following a similar trend. To date, we have seen 60 out of town residential (non-waterfront) homes sell compared to 58 for the same period last year, and not a discernable difference between residential sales north of Parry Sound to those in the areas south.

    Waterfront sales, however, show a completely different picture. Throughout this year, we have noticed a significant weakness in sales for waterfront properties in the areas north of Parry Sound, especially when compared to waterfront areas south (Seguin and South Archipelago Townships).

    The north areas have seen cottage sales drop dramatically from 2010 numbers, down from 46 cottage sales last year to 30 this year. Waterfront lot sales have seen even bigger volume drops, from 25 lots sales last year to only 10 to date in 2011. Those drops translate to -35% and -60% respectively.

    In comparison, south areas have actually seen gains in unit sales, with waterfront lot sales up 15% (on a relatively small sample of 5 units in 2010 and 7 units this year) and cottage sales up 15%, from 40 units last year to 46 for 2011.

    So, what does this all mean? Well, it is my belief the house sales (again, non-waterfront) are being buoyed up by a continued strong regional economy. We are still seeing the positive spinoffs of the massive infrastructure projects that have helped keep the construction industry strong through the economical downturn, and the fact that some of our region’s largest employers are in the government sector, we have not seen the negative effects of plant closures that other similar areas in Muskoka have.

    The waterfront market, on the other hand, is fed by demand in Southern Ontario (especially the Greater Toronto Area). Higher gasoline prices, the continued effects caused by the implementation of the HST (specifically on newly developed waterfront lots) and escalating construction costs have all had an impact on waterfront sales in 2011.

    Government policy will continue to put pressure on waterfront lot sales. For instance, Ontario brings in a new building code in 2012 that will according to contractors I have spoken to, add 3%-4% to the cost of building. Average sales prices for waterfront lots in areas north of Parry Sound fell 4.5% in 2011 and there is no reason why this segment ofthe market will improve in the short to medium term.

    Buyers in general are taking more time to buy and are looking at more product than ever before making a decision. When it comes to rural properties, they want as much privacy as possible (larger frontages for waterfront properties, larger area lots for rural homes and lots), convenient access (year round maintained roads) and easier-to-maintain, less topographically challenging lots. People looking to live at the cottage or home for most or all of the year typically do not want to be further than 30 minutes out of Parry Sound – the closer the better.

    Nevertheless, as I said in the beginning of this quickly lengthening treatise, the market is a bit of an enigma and is frustratingly difficultto nail down.  The public is continually buffeted by negative news on the economic front that tends to wear on even the most optimistic.

    If you are looking to buy, there is good value out there. Selling, exercise some patience and take solace in the fact that even though the local market has been better, it still is not approaching what we experienced in the early-mid 1990s.

    My best advice: stop watching/listening to the news, cancel your newspaper subscription – and notice how your mood improves.

    That is what I have done!

    Posted in Local, Market News, Seasonal | Leave a comment

    Happy Canada Day Weekend

    It’s hard to believe that we’re already at the halfway point of 2011.  Where has the year gone?  Swept away by the unrelenting La Niña powered rains, I suppose.

    Weather does affect business, and has so far this year.  Most people in the local hospitality industry, construction and of course, real estate, are noticing a marked decline in business this past spring.  And everyone points to the wet weather has as the prime culprit.

    I ran the numbers last week and they show a 46 percent decline in sales of waterfront cottages and lots compared to the same period in 2010.  We’ve noticed less showings of our waterfront properties, less inquiries and generally speaking, a spring real estate market that never got enough traction to move forward.

    Now that summer is officially here, we should start to see a gradual improvement in demand.  People are on vacation in July and August, and will be in the area en mass regardless of the weather (which is forecast to be hot and dry).  I believe there is a degree of pent-up buyer demand out there, and goodness knows there are a lot of motivated sellers, which should all lead to a significantly improved second half of 2011.

    Posted in Market News, Seasonal | Leave a comment

    Photoblogs are fun!

    Honestly, I’ve always tried to follow the advice “experts” give when it comes to blogging.  Two or three updates per week on subjects that interest you, keeping content relevant to the theme of the blog or the nature of your business.

    Easier said than done.

    One thing I do is take a lot of pictures.  Some I take with my Canon digital SLR camera, but most I capture with my IPhone 4′s nifty 5 megapixel camera.  I see a cool outhouse, “snap”.  Nifty looking dock, “snap”.  My philosophy is – I take a lot of pictures, why keep them all to myself?

    Check out Parry Sound – Through My Mind’s Eye here

    Posted in Local, Uncategorized | Leave a comment